Re: [MUSEUM-L] Field Museum Darwin
Exhibit
Hope the exhibition
helps with this.
Martin
Gallop Poll:
majority of Republicans Doubt Evolution
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27847
PRINCETON, NJ --
The majority of Republicans in the United States do not believe the
theory of evolution is true and do not believe that humans evolved
over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. This suggests
that when three Republican presidential candidates at a May debate
stated they did not believe in evolution, they were generally in sync
with the bulk of the rank-and-file Republicans whose nomination they
are seeking to obtain.
Independents and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe
in the theory of evolution. But even among non-Republicans there
appears to be a significant minority who doubt that evolution
adequately explains where humans came from.
The data from several recent Gallup studies suggest that Americans'
religious behavior is highly correlated with beliefs about evolution.
Those who attend church frequently are much less likely to believe in
evolution than are those who seldom or never attend. That Republicans
tend to be frequent churchgoers helps explain their doubts about
evolution.
The data indicate
some seeming confusion on the part of Americans on this issue. About a
quarter of Americans say they believe both in evolution's explanation
that humans evolved over millions of years and in the creationist
explanation that humans were created as is about 10,000 years
ago.
Broad Patterns
of Belief in Evolution
The theory of
evolution as an explanation for the origin and development of life has
been controversial for centuries, and, in particular, since the 1859
publication of Charles Darwin's famous The Origin of Species.
Although many scientists accept evolution as the best theoretical
explanation for diversity in forms of life on Earth, the issue of its
validity has risen again as an important issue in the current 2008
presidential campaign. Two recent Republican debates have included
questions to the candidates about evolution. Three candidates -- Sam
Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo -- indicated in response to
a question during the May 3 debate that they did not believe in the
theory of evolution, although they have attempted to clarify their
positions in the weeks since. (My bold)
Several recent
Gallup Polls conducted in May and June indicate that a significant
number of Americans have doubts about the theory of evolution.
One such question
was included in a May Gallup Panel survey:
Now thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth, do you,
personally, believe in evolution, or not?
Yes, believe in
evolution
49%
No, do
not
48
No opinion
2
2007 May
21-24
It is important to
note that this question included a specific reference to
"thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth . . ."
that oriented the respondents toward an explicit consideration of the
implication of evolution for man's origin. Results may have been
different without this introductory phrase.
With that said, Americans' responses to this question are essentially
split down the middle. About half say they do believe in evolution and
about half say they do not.
With that said,
Americans' responses to this question are essentially split down the
middle. About half say they do believe in evolution and about half say
they do not.
A second question included in a June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll
asked about evolution side by side with a similar question about
creationism:
Next, we'd like to ask about your views on two different
explanations for the origin and development of life on earth. Do you
think -- [ITEMS ROTATED] -- is -- [ROTATED: definitely true, probably
true, probably false, (or) definitely false]?
A. Evolution,
that is, the idea that human beings developed over millions of years
from less advanced forms of life
Definitely
true 18%
Probably
true 35
Probably
false 16
Definitely
false
28
No
opinion 3
Total
true
53
Total
false 44
2007 Jun
1-3
B. Creationism,
that is, the idea that God created human beings pretty much in their
present form at one time within the last 10,000 years
Definitely
true 39%
Probably
true 27
Probably
false 16
Definitely
false
15
No
opinion
3
Total
true
66
Total
false
31
2007 Jun
1-3
These results are
similar to those from the question asked in May. A little more than
half of Americans say evolution -- as defined in this question wording
-- is definitely or probably true. Forty-four percent say that it is
probably or definitely false.
In contrast, even more Americans, two-thirds, say the theory of
creationism is definitely or probably true.
A separate Gallup Poll trend question -- also asked in May -- gave
Americans three choices about human beings' origins. Responses to this
question found that 43% of Americans choose the alternative closest to
the creationist perspective, that "God created human beings
pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000
years or so." A substantial 38% say human beings evolved, but
with God guiding the process. Another 14% favored an interpretation of
evolution arguing that God had no part in the process, leaving a total
of 52% who say humans evolved with or without God's direction.
Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on
the origin and development of human beings -- [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1)
Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced
forms of life, but God guided this process, 2) Human beings have
developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but
God had no part in this process, 3) God created human beings
pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000
years or so]?
Man developed,
with God guiding
38%
Man developed,
but God had no part in process
14
God created man
in present form
43
Other/No
opinion
4
To summarize the
results of these three questions about evolution and human
origins:
* Across
the three question wordings, the data show consistently that about
half of Americans agree with the theory of evolution, believe that the
theory of evolution is probably or definitely true, or believe that
humans developed over million of years with or without God's
guidance.
* Belief in
the idea that humans were created pretty much as is 10,000 years ago
is somewhat more dependent on the way in which this concept is
measured. A little more than 4 out of 10 Americans -- when presented
with three alternatives -- say they believe that God created humans in
their present form 10,000 years ago. At the same time, two-thirds of
Americans in a stand-alone question say they believe in the theory of
"creationism" -- defined as the idea that humans were
created in their present form 10,000 years ago.
It might seem
contradictory to believe that humans were created in their present
form at one time within the past 10,000 years and at the same time
believe that humans developed over millions of years from less
advanced forms of life. But, based on an analysis of the two
side-by-side questions asked this month about evolution and
creationism, it appears that a substantial number of Americans hold
these conflicting views.
Results show
that:
* 24% of
Americans believe that both the theory of evolution and the theory of
creationism are probably or definitely true
* 41%
believe that creationism is true, and that evolution is false
* 28%
believe that evolution is true, but that creationism is false
* 3% either
believe that both are false or have no opinion about at least one of
the theories
Without further research, it's not possible to determine the exact
thinking process of those who agreed that both the theory of evolution
and creationism are true. It may be, however, that some respondents
were seeking a way to express their views that evolution may have been
initiated by or guided by God, and told the interviewer that they
agreed with both evolution and creationism in an effort to express
this more complex attitude.
Importance of
Religion
It is important to remember that all three questions in this analysis
included wording that explicitly focused the respondents on the origin
of human beings.
This wording may
have made Americans think about the implications of the theory of
evolution in terms of humans being special creatures as reflected in
religious teachings and in particular in the Judeo-Christian story of
human origins as related in the book of Genesis. USA Today
recently quoted Christian conservative and former presidential
candidate Gary Bauer as saying: "Most of us don't think that
we're just apes with trousers."
Thus, it is not surprising to find that many of those who do not
believe in the theory of evolution justify that belief with explicitly
religious explanations:
(Asked of
those who do not believe in evolution) What is the most important
reason why you would say you do not believe in evolution?
[OPEN-ENDED]
2007 May
21-24
%
I believe in Jesus
Christ
19
I believe in the
almighty God, creator of Heaven and
Earth 16
Due to my religion
and faith
16
Not enough
scientific evidence to prove
otherwise
14
I believe in what
I read in the Bible
12
I'm a
Christian
9
I don't believe
humans come from beasts/monkeys
3
Other
5
No reason in
particular
2
No
opinion
3
The majority of these responses are clearly religious in nature. It is
fascinating to note that some Americans simply justified their
objection to evolution by statements of general faith and belief.
Although the New Testament does not include many explicit references
to the origin of humans in the words of Jesus, 19% of Americans state
that they do not believe in evolution because they believe in Jesus
Christ. Other religious justifications focus on statements of belief
in God, general faith concerns, references to the Bible, and the
statement that "I'm a Christian." A relatively small number
of this group justify their disbelief of evolution by saying more
specifically that they do not believe that there is enough scientific
evidence to prove the theory and/or that they simply do not believe
that humans come from beasts or monkeys.
The graph shows
the relationship between church attendance and response to the
straightforward question of belief in evolution.
Weekly Church goers
74% Do not believe in evolution; 24 % do believe in
evolution
Nearly Weekly Church goers
45% Do not believe in evolution; 52% believe in evolution
Seldom/Never
26% Do not believe in evolution; 71% Believe in evolution
(Graphic deleted)
The group of
Americans who attend church weekly -- about 40% in this sample -- are
strongly likely to reject the theory of evolution. The group of
Americans who attend church seldom or never -- also about 40% -- have
the mirror image opinion and are strongly likely to accept the theory
of evolution.
Republicans
Most Likely to Reject Evolution
As noted previously, belief in evolution has been injected into the
political debate already this year, with much attention given to the
fact three Republican presidential candidates answered a debate
question by saying that they did not believe in evolution.
It appears that these candidates are, in some ways, "preaching to
the choir" in terms of addressing their own party's constituents
-- the group that matters when it comes to the GOP primaries.
Republicans are much more likely to be religious and attend church
than independents or Democrats in general. Therefore, it comes as no
great surprise to find that Republicans are also significantly more
likely not to believe in evolution than are independents and
Democrats.
The group of
Americans who attend church weekly -- about 40% in this sample -- are
strongly likely to reject the theory of evolution. The group of
Americans who attend church seldom or never -- also about 40% -- have
the mirror image opinion and are strongly likely to accept the theory
of evolution.
Republicans
Most Likely to Reject Evolution
As noted previously, belief in evolution has been injected into the
political debate already this year, with much attention given to the
fact three Republican presidential candidates answered a debate
question by saying that they did not believe in
evolution.
It appears that
these candidates are, in some ways, "preaching to the choir"
in terms of addressing their own party's constituents -- the group
that matters when it comes to the GOP primaries. Republicans are much
more likely to be religious and attend church than independents or
Democrats in general. Therefore, it comes as no great surprise to find
that Republicans are also significantly more likely not to believe in
evolution than are independents and Democrats.
Republicans
68% Do not believe
in evolution; 30% do believe in evolution
Independents
37% Do not believe
in evolution; 61% believe in evolution
Democrats
40% Do not believe
in evolution; 57% believe in evolution
(Graphic deleted)
Bottom
Line
The data in this analysis were measured in the context of questions
about the origin and development of human beings. It is apparent that
many Americans simply do not like the idea that humans evolved from
lower forms of life. This appears to be substantially based on a
belief in the story of creation as outlined in the Bible -- that God
created humans in a process that, taking the Bible literally, occurred
about 10,000 years ago.
Americans who say they do not believe in the theory of evolution are
highly likely to justify this belief by reference to religion, Jesus
Christ, or the Bible. Furthermore, there is a strong correlation
between high levels of personal religiosity and doubts about
evolution.
Being religious in
America today is strongly related to partisanship, with more religious
Americans in general much more likely to be Republicans than to be
independents or Democrats. This relationship helps explain the finding
that Republicans are significantly more likely than independents or
Democrats to say they do not believe in evolution. When three
Republican presidential candidates said in a May debate that they did
not believe in evolution, the current analysis suggests that many
Republicans across the country no doubt agreed.
Survey
Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted
June 1-3, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95%
confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other
random effects is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 203 Catholics, the maximum margin
of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 804 non-Catholics, the maximum
margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
In addition to
sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
public opinion polls.
--
Martin Weiss, Ph.D
Vice President, Science
New York Hall of Science
47-01 111 th Street
Corona, New York 11368
718 699 0005 x 356
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