The first, and perhaps the most important, bit of advice is not to be taken
in by salesmen desperate to sell you a couple of dozen Pentium IIs: with
one major exception the main risk to PC systems lies in the software, not
least the operating systems.  (There are rumours that even Windows NT 4.0
needs "patches" to make it fully year 2000 compliant, and no doubt someone
will soon be picking holes in Windows 97!).

So far as PCs are concerned, on the hardware side the most likely problem
is a non-compliant BIOS - something we rarely if ever bother about these
days, as with Windows etc. we no longer see what is going on behind the
scenes during the start-up sequence.  Allegedly the BIOS on some EXTREMELY
old PCs won't recognise the change of century and will need updating or
replacing.  However, in our organisation checks on many hundreds of PCs -
the oldest of which were 286/386 types getting on for 8 years old - has not
produced a single example, so in principle you shouldn't have to replace
your actual PCs.

A simple way to check the hardware is to change the date and time setting
on the PC to - say - 11.45pm on 31st December 1999 and leave it running for
half-an-hour to see whether the calendar moves on to 1 January 2000.  (If
you want to be doubly sure, after this move the day forward to 11.45pm on
28 February 2000 and check that it copes with the year 2000 suspension of
the leap year day as well.)

If the calendar moves forward OK then save your $2,000 or whatever towards
tackling the potentially much bigger problem - the software.

On the software side the position is very patchy.  Some software has been
year 2000 compliant from their earliest versions developed 10 or 15 years
(or more) ago:  amongst the packages we make heavy use of use of here this
is true of dBASE and Quattro Pro, for example.  Other packages, including
stand-alone word processors, are unlikely to be "critical" even if they are
not compliant.

However, there have been reports that right up to a matter of a few months
ago some other popular packages, including e.g. many office accounting
systems, were still being sold with the so-called Year 2000 "bug".  There
could be significant problems if other critical systems, such as the
museum's documentation and collections management system crashes or behaves
irrationally (e.g. doesn't carry forward the correct date for the return of
loans or for insurance renewals).

Remembering that recent research shows that over 30% of organisations
suffering a major loss of financial and other records (e.g. through fire -
though major data systems failure could have the same effect) never recover
and go bust within 18 months, with such critical systems you should be
asking the relevant software companies for unambiguous information on
compliance or non-compliance, and on the prospects for updating if there is
a possibility of problems on 1 January 2000.  Personally, if there are the
slightest doubts my own first priority I would be to buy a new accounting
and financial management package, and do so in the next few weeks rather
than months, so that there is time to get it fully installed and tested
through the 1999 financial year.

The two most serious Year 2000 risks lie in two areas - old specialised
(especially mainframe or ex-mainframe) systems, and "embedded" -
non-accessible - computer codes in just about every kind of modern
industrial, business and consumer equipment.

Many larger museums may still be operating with collections documentation
and other systems that had their origins in mainframe systems specially
developed for the museum or a group of museums in the 1960s or 1970s and
written in languages such as COBOL or FORTRAN.  In these, dates were
frequently abbreviated to save space (in the days when on-line computer
storage space was costing around 30,000 (yes, thirty thousand!) times as
much as it does today.  The expression "bug" is incorrect and unfair; the
financial savings through the use of such space-saving abbreviations were
very real and the programmers did this quite deliberately (never dreaming
that their programs might still be running 25 or 30 years later).

Here, tracking down ever line of programming which might have a date code
in them, when few if any were ever fully documented, is a real nightmare,
and the current estimate is that if every trained COBOL etc. programmer in
the world worked full-time on this for the next 18 months they would
probably cover less than 20% of the lines of program needing checking and
amending.  Compared with the demands (and budgets) of areas such as
banking, insurance and government and military systems it is obvious that
museums likely to be a long way behind in the rush.

I don't think anyone has the slightest idea how serious is the problem of
embedded, non-accessible, computer code in just about every piece of
electrical equipment, and here again the only hope must be the original
manufacturers or the current maintenance contractors.  Even relatively
small museums probably have dozens if not hundreds of these: heating,
ventilation and air conditioning control and monitoring systems, burglar
and fire alarm systems, car park barriers, internal telephone systems,
faxes, cash registers etc. - perhaps even the programmable dishwasher and
microwave in the museum restaurant or the staff room.

Both personal and museum cars and other vehicles may also be affected. In
US price terms no less than $1,600 of the $7,000 (before taxes) purchase
price of my Fiat Punto "mini" is for the on-board computer and related
systems.  This controls not only the engine management system but also the
security system and immobiliser, as well as the maintenance schedules etc.
Fiat assure me that it is fully year 2000 compliant - which is a great
relief. since if it was not I would have spend well over $2,000 replacing
the computer, ignition lock and door locks before I could start it and
drive away on 1 January 2000!

Some of the problems are in fact already with us.  My new two years
American Express card has an currency period of 1 August 1998 to 31 July
2000, but one week on I have already had it rejected by the electronic
tills of several merchants - which currently read the card as 98 years out
of date!

The key question to ask your suppliers is will they GUARANTEE that all the
specialist equipment which may have embedded microprocessor controls will
work properly on 1 January 2000?

After that, you have to ask yourself whether you believe them. Already one
of the largest European national airlines has warned that it is currently
considering grounding all its aircraft for 24 hours over the Year 2000
change just in case, they, their suppliers and - not least - the many
thousands of air traffic centres and airports have missed something
critical in their five or more years of Year 2000 preparation.

Patrick Boylan







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