Kate--
When I worked at ASTC, I collected attendance and other data for a statistical publication and also for our newsletter. This topic came up pretty frequently, but there's not been a lot of written material or conference sessions about it. (It's probably too hard for people to discuss candidly.) During subsequent jobs at newly opening/expanding science centers in Fort Wayne, Ind., and Orlando, this has also come up as we talked with other institutions while planning for the post-opening years.
The general collective wisdom in the science-center world (among institutions in larger metro areas) is that you can't match your first-year attendance following opening or expansion. It's going to go down, and the drop may be big. The "awful" second year is usually followed by a very slow, but steady rise in attendance, as the institution works its way into the community, as your brand builds its awareness, loyalty and equity among your audience and as staff spend less time dealing with "systems" problems and more time on their actual functions.
Your institution may be going through a variation of this that's "time expanded" because you're a national/international place. Maybe what science centers experience in their first year takes four years when your target audience is on six continents.
Most people who've been through a post-opening drop will attribute this to:
1) Gradual narrowing of the audience. Some people come the first year to check it out, find it's not their cup of tea, and don't return.
2) "Higher-hanging fruit". For all those "low-hanging fruit" people that come the first year but then don't return, you have to pull in an equal number of new bodies to maintain your attendance. But the "replacement" people aren't as likely to come on their own or be receptive to your messages. To get them in, you'd have to spend more money and time to reach those folks and convince them--and such money and staff is not available . . . because attendance is down.
3) The What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately feelings. Well, that's not the best description, but it's human nature for most people to want to try new things, places, experiences, etc. I'm told this is a huge problem in the restaurant industry, where good food and excellent service and atmosphere amazingly are not guarantors of long-term success. People move on to the new big thing. Which is not to say that a core group of fans won't continue and grow--it's just that as a percentage of overall users they're pretty small. In science centers, this is a big reason why we have temporary exhibitions. For places that have Imax theaters, the changing films help too. You've got to be able to articulate a good reason (or several) why people should come, or come back.
Here's another factor, which I've not heard anyone else say but still think is true :-). When the advertising level (paid and free media coverage) goes down, attendance goes down. Attendance was huge at Orlando while the capital-campaign funds were available for paid advertising, and dried up almost immediately after the campaign closed and we had to rely on the operating budget. Advertising is often the first thing to get cut in a budget reevaluation, and since media interest after an opening/expansion is lower anyway, institutions need to have media strategies ready for getting editorial coverage on print, radio, tv, and the internet. If you don't have that--and your big budget for advertising goes away--you're in a world of hurt.
There are two exceptions to this general pattern that I know of--places that did not see a huge drop-off in attendance following their expansions. They were the Museum of Discovery and Science in Ft. Lauderdale (1992 expansion) and the Museum of Science and Industry (MOSI) in Tampa (1995 expansion).
Sorry for the long post that doesn't have a lot of useful data, but I wanted to let you know that among your science-center peers your idea (that there's a natural decline in visitation) is generally true, but that the drop and recovery seem to happen a lot more quickly.
--Todd Happer
Scientific American
On 11/12/99, Museum discussion list wrote:
> Hello folks-
>
> My visitation theory is that new museum suffer a natural
> decline in visitation several years after opening. ˙ ˙That no
> museum maintains opening attendance perpetually, and that
> without major marketing and/or roofline changes attendance
> levels will drop from opening attendance and reach a new
> plateau.
>
> My director/board now wants to discuss possibility this monday
> morning, and I need some back-up research. ˙Does anyone have
> any studies that might back up this trend? ˙You could respond
> to me off-line.
>
> Much appreciated.
>
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> U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
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