Kate --

I hope that all is well.  It is pretty typical that there are inflated
attendance levels in the first two to three years that a museum opens ---
and it is not until really the fourth or fifth year that attendance levels
typically stabilize. This is also true with existing museums/aquariums,
etc. that open major expansions i.e. Monterey Bay's Outer Bay, the Shedd
Aquarium's Oceanarium, Oregon Coast and Keiko. Marketing efforts in years
prior to opening if done correctly builds excitment about the project and
after people have visited, they have been there done that, until the next
big hurrah. 

Examples of stablizing attendance (aquarium projects are what is coming to
mind) include: 

Tennessee Aquarium: Year 1: 1.5 million  ---- Year 4: 1.1 million 
Aquarium of the Americas: Year 1: 2.3 million --- Year 4: 1.3 million

For expansions:

Monterey Bay's "Outer Bay" (opened in 1996) -- attendance in 1996 -- 2.4
million and in 1998 attendance was 1.6


If you look at major projects that have opened in the early 1990's you will
pretty much see this trend -- 10 -30% above stabliized year is normal. The
only real variation is when a project opens in an area that has a smaller
pop. base and is not really a destination tourism area. The attendance
profile then ramps up to year four as the word of the project spreads,
school programs gain acceptance and so forth--- year four or five is
typically higher than year one in this case. 


Best,

Jason




At 10:02 AM 11/12/99 -0500, you wrote:
>       Hello folks-
>
>       My visitation theory is that new museum suffer a natural
>       decline in visitation several years after opening. ÿ ÿThat no
>       museum maintains opening attendance perpetually, and that
>       without major marketing and/or roofline changes attendance
>       levels will drop from opening attendance and reach a new
>       plateau.
>
>       My director/board now wants to discuss possibility this monday
>       morning, and I need some back-up research. ÿDoes anyone have
>       any studies that might back up this trend? ÿYou could respond
>       to me off-line.
>
>       Much appreciated.
>
>       ***************************************************************
>       *******************
>       Kate Haley Goldman
>       Program Analyst
>       U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
>       100 Raoul Wallenberg Place SW
>       Washington, D.C. 20024
>       (202) 488-6153 Telephone
>       (202) 488-2695 Fax
>       [log in to unmask]
>       ***************************************************************
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