Roger et al.,
Thanks. Looks like a well constructed site, and useful. Kudos on your
involvement.
However, since I do not have an alarmist bone in my body(and it is Monday),
I feel the need to express my personal reasoned opinion on the issue, which
I have been hearing far too much about. No one in particular is the object
of this particular angst. I believe we should be far more concerned with
the looming "plandemic" (a word taken from one of the site's interesting
articles that I wish I had coined) associated with this phenomenon, than
with the potential of the pandemic itself. A plandemic is a serious, though
normally non-fatal affliction contracted quite easily by a wide array of
institutions in any media obsessed culture. Plandemics are however
enormously wasteful of time and resources better spent on something
substantive. Y2K springs to mind.
Essentially in this case: bad science + errant immunology assumptions +
alarmist media + government support = bird flu plandemic
Although it is possible for some variety of this flu to become commonly
transferrable to humans and subsequently transmissible between us, there is
no certainty that it ever will. Much like the possibility that an airborne
version of HIV will develop over time. There are thousands of animal
diseases that do not cross over species lines to which we are exposed
daily, any one of which might have the same effects. Currently you can only
get the "bird flu" from infected birds(and perhaps through mosquitoes), and
even then the odds are astronomical, since it is not a virus that normally
effects humans at all. Even if you catch it, it still can not be
transmitted from person to person, and it is nowhere near 100% fatal. At
this point it is hardly an earthshaking problem, and no amount of planning
on my institution's part is going to do a darned thing to change whether it
becomes a bigger one. It also seems odd to me that they are cranking out
vaccinations for a virus that does not yet exist, i.e. a virus that can be
transmitted from person to person. Perhaps a vaccination against the one
that occasional people get directly from birds will be helpful?
My university does have plans for tornadoes, terrorist attack, fires,
nuclear war, floods, and even earthquakes(in Kansas). There are medication
distribution plans and centers should something sweep across the nation.
Hopefully they will not go further off the deep end and develop a new plan
for every potential yet unrealized threat that crops up in the future.
Besides, are we done planning for HIV, tuberculosis, heart disease, cancer,
and all the other problems that we already have, without adding ones that
do not yet exist and may never come to pass? Hundreds of thousands die
every year from those already pandemic diseases.
All that said, it is still technically possible that the bird flu pandemic
will occur someday. Actually, on a less cheerful note, it is a certainty
something like it will occur eventually, since the earth is going to get
really tired of the skin disease that is us. I am glad the CDC and the
WHO(not the band) are there to shield us from the plaent's righteous
revenge. I personally prefer to waste my fears on random lightning strikes,
dinosaur-killing meteors, and machete-wielding sociopaths. I promise not to
complain if I am one of the ones it strikes down. The plandemic I mean.
Please note that the usual caveats of my not being a professional alarmist,
viral epidemiologist, or vital statistics analyzer apply, although I would
be happy to play one on tv. A spot on CSI Las Vegas would rock!
Have a great day all.
Mark Janzen
Registrar/Collections Manager
Edwin A. Ulrich Museum of Art
Martin H. Bush Outdoor Sculpture Collection
Wichita State University
(316)978-5850
Roger Smith
<[log in to unmask]
CO.NZ> To
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discussion list cc
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SE.LSOFT.COM> Subject
A thought for the list - The most
serious health threat facing the
12/04/2005 11:04 planet says W.H.O.
PM
Please respond to
Museum discussion
list
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SE.LSOFT.COM>
Greeting to list members,
CBS yesterday is quoted as saying " Fewer than 100 people have died
worldwide, yet the World Health Organization calls the Avian Flu' the most
serious health threat facing the planet, greater than AIDS or tuberculosis"
While not wishing to spread either panic nor despondency amongst the list,
it seemed timely to remind people that I recently published another "public
good" web site - Global Pandemic News - which can be viewed at
http://www.pandemic-news.info
Our university ( my day job! ) is reasonably well advanced it its plans to
combat such an pandemic and other list members may also be formulating
plans?
I built the above site to bring live news feeds 24X7 to anyone with an
interest in this topic. This is just a timely reminder of the web address
and its existence. You may want to share it with friends?
Best wishes to all
Roger
Global Museum
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